At a glance: Predictive Audiences uses AI to create an audience of users most likely to take a key action, such as purchasing, so you can reach high-intent users, reduce wasted spend, and maximize campaign impact.
About Predictive Audiences
Predictive Audiences, part of AppsFlyer Audiences, helps you create AI-powered audiences of users most likely to take a key action. Use it to predict who is most likely to purchase within the next 7 days, so you can focus your campaigns on high-intent users and improve campaign efficiency.
You can adjust the likelihood range to create a narrower audience of higher-intent users or a broader audience with greater reach, then connect the audience to your partners for activation. Once created, the audience refreshes daily and is automatically and continuously sent to your connected partners.
Create a predictive audience
Prerequisites
To get started using Predictive Audiences, follow the steps below:
- Prerequisite: An AppsFlyer Audiences subscription. Predictive Audiences is currently in beta and is enabled per account. To gain access, contact your CSM.
Step 1: Define the goal
In this step, you define what you want Predictive Audiences to predict by selecting the app, target event, and prediction goal for the audience.
To define the goal:
- Access Audiences by clicking Engage > Audiences in the AppsFlyer side menu.
- In Audiences, click New predictive audience.
-
Enter an audience name.
- Select an app.
- Select a target event.
- Select a prediction goal (Likely to purchase).
- Click Continue.
Step 2: Set the probability range
In this step, you set the probability range to balance precision and reach. Higher minimum thresholds create smaller, higher-intent audiences, while lower minimum thresholds expand reach while maintaining high performance.
You can select a suggested preset or drag the chart markers to customize the range. As you adjust it, the estimated audience size updates in real time, helping you understand the trade-off between scale and conversion likelihood.
To set the probability range:
- Choose a preset (High intent, Balanced, or Maximum reach) to set a default range. We recommend selecting Balanced.
Or
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To customize the range, drag the minimum and maximum markers on the graph.
The Estimated audience size updates in real time based on your selections.
Compare audiences (optional):
Compare Audiences is an optional feature that lets you compare your predictive audience with one or more existing audiences. It allows you to compare performance across key indicators (KPIs), such as return on ad spend (ROAS) and conversion rate. You can select any audience to compare; however, performance data is currently available only for campaigns connected to Facebook, TikTok, Google, or Snap.
Step 3: Connect to partners
In this step, you connect the predictive audience to your partners so it can be activated and uploaded upon creation.
To connect to partners and activate the audience:
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Select existing partner connections or add a new connection.
- Review your selections in the Summary on the right.
- Click Connect and finish.
Your first predictive audience will be ready within 24 hours and automatically activated with your partners.
After creation, your new predictive audience will appear in the Audiences table.
Traits and limitations
| Trait | Description |
|---|---|
| Availability | Beta feature enabled per account and requires explicit opt-in. Available currently for ecommerce apps only. |
| Prediction window | Predicts the likelihood of purchase within 7 days. |
| One app per audience | Multi-app predictive audiences aren’t supported. |
| Eligibility-based selection & data limitations | Only eligible apps and events with a minimum amount of data will appear in selection drop-downs (e.g., 1000 active users in the last 30 days). |
| Data protection | Your audience data may be processed to support AI-powered Audiences capabilities. Your account data is never shared and is used only to improve internal models and predictions. |
| Daily refresh | The audience is refreshed and uploaded to partners daily. |