In this step, you define what you want Predictive Audiences to predict by selecting a prediction behavior, an app, and one or more target events.

To define the goal:

1. Go to Engage > Audiences.
2. In Audiences, click New predictive audience.
3. Enter an audience name.

4. Select a prediction behavior. The list of behaviors includes:

   Group	Behavior	Description	Available target events
   Likely to purchase	Likely to make a purchase	Users likely to make a purchase	Revenue events
   Likely to purchase	Likely to make a first purchase	Users likely to make their first purchase	Revenue events
   Likely to purchase	Likely to make a repeating purchase	Users who made a previous purchase and are likely to purchase again	Revenue events
   Likely to convert	Likely to make a conversion	Users likely to make a conversion	Non-revenue events
   Likely to convert	Likely to make a first conversion	Users likely to make their first conversion	Non-revenue events
   Likely to convert	Likely to make a repeating conversion	Users who made a previous conversion and are likely to convert again	Non-revenue events
   Likely to convert	Likely to make a one-time conversion	Users likely to make a conversion that happens only once in their journey	Non-revenue events

   Note: App and Target event become available only after you select a behavior.
    

5. Select an app. The list shows the top 10 eligible apps by number of users. To find another app, use the search.

6. Select one or more target events. The list shows the top 10 eligible events by number of events, filtered by the behavior you selected. To find another event, use the search. When you select several events, Predictive Audiences predicts the likelihood that a user performs at least one of them.

   Warning

   Select more than one target event only when the events represent the same action.

7. Click Continue.

In this step, you set the probability range to balance precision and reach. Higher minimum thresholds create smaller, higher-intent audiences, while lower minimum thresholds expand reach while maintaining high performance.

You can select a suggested preset or drag the chart markers to customize the range. As you adjust it, the estimated audience size updates in real time, helping you understand the trade-off between scale and conversion likelihood.

To set the probability range:

1. Choose a preset (High intent, Balanced, or Maximum reach) to set a default range. We recommend selecting Balanced.

Or

2. To customize the range, drag the minimum and maximum markers on the graph.

   

   The Estimated audience size updates in real time based on your selections.

Compare audiences (optional): 

Compare Audiences is an optional feature that lets you compare your predictive audience with one or more existing audiences. It allows you to compare performance across key indicators (KPIs), such as return on ad spend (ROAS) and conversion rate. You can select any audience to compare; however, performance data is currently available only for campaigns connected to Facebook, TikTok, Google, or Snap.
 

In this step, you connect the predictive audience to your partners so it can be activated and uploaded upon creation.

To connect to partners and activate the audience:

1. Select existing partner connections or add a new connection.

   

2. Review your selections in the Summary on the right.
3. Click Connect and finish.

Each new combination of app, target events, and behavior requires a new prediction model, which can take up to 24 hours to build. When the model is ready, Predictive Audiences automatically activates the audience with your partners. If an existing model already uses the same combination, Predictive Audiences creates the audience immediately.

After creation, your new predictive audience will appear in the Audiences table.